Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Political alternative Team anna, Team Kejriwal, Team me

Today the hot question seems to be whether IAC should form its own party, support good candidates or be totally apolitical.
My personal view is that over the last two decades the electorate is getting increasingly fragmented and we do not see any single party getting a functional majority. In such a case it is difficult to imagine a new party garnering sufficient votes and coming to power.
When BJP was ascending it was known as a party with a difference. Every other day news paper contained reports of a prominent person (ex-serviceman, retired bureaucrat, social worker) joining the party. But somewhere in the journey from near majority to a coliation majority to a desire for independent majority the party ended up compromising with its values.
RSS walla's lament that in the past decade neither BJP nor RSS remained the same, the lure of power and being the power behind the throne has lured undesirable elements to both the organisation.


How then can a new party expect to overcome these issues and get to power?

My personal theory to explain everything ™ has been that each person has a unique skill set which he uses to advance in his life goals. So an organisation's future depends on the skill set that it attracts to its folds. If India's political setup is designed to attract a rotten bunch it will attract the rotten bunch.

Since AK calls all parties corrupt will he give outside or coalition support to either BJP or congress? will he discard Janlokpal until his party get absolute majority (Similar to what BJP did with Ram Janmabhoomi)?

No I dont think a new party would make a direct difference in terms of coming to power and making new laws, But I still support AK and teams decision to enter the electoral fray. I will eleborate in the following paragraphs.

Today I am a part of a constituency which has the highest number of engineers(BTech, MTech, PHD's) in India. My representative is a 12th Pass seller of sanitary equipment. Can my representative really represent me? Did people vote for the party or the person? My understanding is that people voted for the party and due to some compulsion the party allocated the seat to a person who was not a true representative of the people.
My colleagues who have campaigned in the recent Graduate constituency elections have spoken on length as to how Loksatta's candidate had received all the urban votes (some 800 voters showedup in the urban area) but lost out on the rural votes. And how even if each and every voter of any single Apartment complex had shown up for voting Their candidate would have won the elections.

If AK and Party starts getting a few seat and creates a vote swing in other constituencies on their clean politics platform it will send a clear message to the other parties that this is a votebank that you have neglected.
If the Apartment complexes show up on election day It would create a vote bank which each and every political party will scramble to capture.

 If inorder to capture this votebank other parties start fielding candidates with good records we would have strengthened all parties and in turn strengthened our democratic system.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Right to recall and its impact on Indian elections

Currently Indian elections are a good case of divide and rule.
The electorate is divided into voters and non-voters,
The voting segment is further divided into different votebanks based on caste & religion

For a party to come into power it identifies the majority voting block and ensures that a candidate who can appease this block is fielded in the constituency.

Such a candidate will also try to fragment his opponents votebank. e.g. pointing out that his opponent is of a different religious background.
In this kind of a situation the winning margins are very thin. and a person with 20% support can also hope to win the election due to fragmentation of his opponents votes.
With Right to recall if 80% of the votes were anti-winner and got distributed among his multiple opponents, the voters can recall the candidate.

Hence an election based on fragmentation of votes may not lead to good results.

With right to recall the mantra will change from divide and rule to unite and win.



Why demand for an SIT.

Assume Janlokpal was passed today, and the first step taken by citizens of India was to file corruption charges against various politicians (Party bosses, MP's, Ministers etc.)

Under Janlokpal these charges will be investigated within an year, charges files and the legal proceedings completed within another year. i.e. after two years of passing Janlokpal we would start seeing a cleanup of the political arena where the corrupt will either be in jail or decide not to enter politics.

Janlokpal will affect all the equations of the political game. from fighting elections to forming the government (horse trading etc.) to running the government to collection of cash for the next election.

Due to the above two factors an established politician will certainly not prefer to introduce such a disruptive change to his well balanced political equation.

So  today we see the bill getting stalled in the parliament where it is introduced in the last day of the session and the session is adjourned while the debate is in progress.

With the political class showing reluctance for passing the bill. What was the other option available for prosecuting the corrupt ministers? Let us take a look at the timelines of the 2G scam

10 January 2008:Scam initiated when the Govt retroactively preponed the cutoff date to25th  Sept from 1st Oct
 29 Nov 2008: Swamy seeks permission to initiate actions against Raja
4 May 2009: An NGO Telecom Watchdog files complaint to the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) on the illegalities in the spectrum allocation to Loop Telecom.
19 May 2009: Another complaint was filed to the CVC by Arun Agarwal, highlighting grant of spectrum to Swan Telecom at throwaway prices.
1 July 2009: Delhi HC holds advancing of cut-off date as illegal on a petition of telecom company S-Tel
March 19, 2010 the PMO replied that the plea made by Swamy was "premature" 
7 Jan 2011: Kapil Sibal give A. Raja a clean chit by claiming "No loss to Govt from 2G spectrum allocation"
15 May 2012, A Raja was granted bail.


So under the current scheme if we file for sanctions to initiate prosecution against the 14 ministers.
  • PMO will  initially give a clean chit. 
  • After sustained public pressure CBI/JPC probe will be initiated.
  • If sufficient evidence is available they will spend a few months in jail.
  • 4 years from today the ministers will be out on bail and the court case will drag on for decade.
SIT currently is the only way we can get the wheels of justice moving in the right direction.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Janlokpal, The War against corruption

Mahatma Gandhi said "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."

First they ignore you

We have gone through a very long stage where the Law makers went through the process of ignoring India's demand for strong anti-corruption measures.

Then they ridicule you

We have seen the law makers attempts to ridicule this movement. Who can forget Laloo's antics in and out of the parliament.

 Then they fight you

Now we are in the phase where they are fighting us.

Then you win.

I am not sure what other methods have been used in this fight( Please use the comments section to list them) and what is the duration of this fight, but we all know what is the next stage.... We Win!!!